Gore to run in 2008?

There are quiet but constant noises about the possibility that Captain Planet (aka Al Gore) will contest the Democrat primaries for the 2008 US Presidential nomination. According to recent reports, some of Gore’s supporters are conducting preliminary discussions about a Gore nomination – although at the moment they include how to get the man himself to run.

Gore’s 2000 campaign manager made some interesting remarks, reported here, including:

Wait till Oscar night.

In many ways, Gore would be the ideal Democrat candidate. Having been out of the Senate for some time, he carries little of the Iraq war baggage that most prospective 2008 candidates do (Obama also falls into this category, but mainly because he was practically still in nappies when the relevant votes took place). Perhaps more importantly, he’s white, and male. Whether you like it or not, those characteristics seem to crop up about, oh, 100% of the time, when previous successful candidates are considered. In contrast to Clinton, Gore’s record on stating and holding clear and principled positions seems relatively good, and he would surely remind people less of negative periods of Bill Clinton’s presidency than Hillary would. In contrast to Obama, he is a politician of vast experience, and yet he seems to have rediscovered an idealism and passion in much the same vein as that of the younger man.

Two other factors make Gore a particularly appealing and electable candidate.

Firstly, an Inconvenient Truth represents some of the best publicity imaginable for a candidate, a hopeful and energetic yet thoughtful call to arms on an issue that the vast majority of ordinary people are concerned about (for instance, in a recent poll 59% of Americans said that global warming was extremely important or very important, with a further 23% describing it as moderately important). The background presented in the film – his childhood on the farm, the death of his child, and so on, was engaging and humanising. Other scenes were inspirational in a ‘West Wing’ sort of way (some moments, such as the black and white footage of Gore walking out to address a crowd to rapturous applause, were practically a campaign ad already).

Secondly, and perhaps less immediately obvious amongst all the noise about Clinton and Obama, Gore is extremely appealing as the anti-Bush. Bush is currently polling in the low 30s in terms of approval, and the Democratic rout of the Republicans in Congress and the Senate is clearly linked to his presidency and particularly the Iraq war – in the same poll cited earlier, a startling 90% of those surveyed regarded “the situation in Iraq” as either very important or extremely important. Whereas Bush is an… everyman, shall we say.. Gore is cerebral. Where Bush has trouble with simple phrases, Gore is articulate in the extreme. Where Bush is highly religious and tends to emphasise ‘values’ and subjectivity, Gore is a strong supporter of science and objective approaches to problem solving.

Gore famously lost out in 2000 on the “who would you rather have a beer with?” test (although frankly a beer with Bush sounds pretty unbearable). In 2008 it is a distinct possibility that the average American will reconsider whether they want someone from the local pub in charge of their very large and powerful country, and whether they wouldn’t perhaps have a slightly nerdy but extremely competent technocrat at the helm. It’s even possible that some moderate voters will see a vote for Gore as a kind of apology after what can generously be described as a disastrous two terms under Bush following his narrow win.

A US presidential candidate has to inspire his or her own side, because non-compulsory voting means that voter turnout is important. But it is also important to appeal to those voters in the middle, a decisive factor in last year’s congressional elections. There are many good reasons to think that Gore would do the latter better than either Clinton or Obama. If he carries on in the vein of An Inconvenient Truth he would have the capacity to match them on the former too. Oscar night awaits.

(Thanks to A., who should be writing some of this herself, for the Brazile article)