For the first time in a loooong long time the betting markets put Labor as favourites to win the next election.
You may be familiar with the idea that betting markets are the best predictor of election outcomes, which is dismembered quite effectively on Mumble (see the February 9 post):
The punters are sheep who reflect the current received wisdom, which is usually correct, but sometimes wrong.
But whether the betting market genuinely ‘predicts’ elections or merely reflects the aggregate of current expertise/conventional wisdom on the likely outcome, it’s clear that this represents a genuine shift in sentiment towards the view that Labor under Rudd is a real chance this year.
Irrespective of all that, these are the best odds that have been available on a Coalition win for a long time - it might be time for ALP supporters to put some insurance money on the possibility of Mr Howard pulling off another last minute escape.
i have been watching a lot of question time this last week or so (what? ive got insomnia - it helps put me to sleep) and my perception is that JH is slowly but surely starting to crack under the pressure. KR knows exactly how to get under his skin and get him riled up enough that he makes a fool of himself time and time again. It really makes for great late night viewing….
It is my perception that the libs are running scared because they know the ALP has got them by the balls over so many issues, you can literally see the frustration on JH’s face. KR is relentless in his pursuit to highlight just how out of touch JH is and i love that about him - as do a lot of people i speak to. I agree that the ALP are in with more than a chance this year provided they can come up with the goods policy wise - and i believe they are already starting to do that. I also believe that the greater public have grown immune to the Libs and their political scare-mongering and would go so far as to suggest any attempts to do so this time around would prove to be the final nail in their coffin. But then again, that’s my uneducated opinion and im a bit of an optimist when it comes to things like this, so only time will tell i guess.
great blog. love your work