a roll of the dice

This is a dangerous piece of circular reasoning: the solution to the problems created by an ageing population is to increase population growth.

The ‘logic’ employed appears to be that, in order to sustain the current number of wrinklies in their retirement, society requires a greater number of youngsters to be working, paying taxes, and generally slaving away making the economy grow.  At this point it should be recalled that the population is already growing at a more-than-replacement rate, and so an assumption is being made that the number of younger people required to support retirees is such that our population must grow even faster than it already is.  The problem, of course, is that those youngsters eventually become oldies themselves, and therefore will require even more new youngsters to support them in their retirement. And so it goes, until we all live in one square metre of desert apiece and live exclusively on Soylent Green.

One fallacy inherent in this reasoning is that economic growth requires population growth. Another is that a population cannot stabilise at a growth rate of zero and still adequately provide for its older members.  A third is that the positive consequences of increased population will automatically outweigh any negative consequences.

In Australia we currently have chronic water shortages, an impending energy crisis, major transport problems in all of our capital cities, and the most unaffordable housing in our modern history. Adding further population will only exacerbate these problems, yet their impact on our ability to support retirees is typically ignored in this debate.

Business interests continue to push hard for an increase in Australia’s population. This paper provides some background on the Business Council of Australia’s efforts, and also critiques the position from an ecological viewpoint. The BCA has established the Australian Population Institute (”APop”) which attempts to keep a straight face while calling for “debate” about a “greater Australia.” This paper also refers to other groups with a vested interest in increasing population, such as the Housing Industry Association, driving the population growth agenda.

Australia does need a debate about population growth: one including a rational consideration of the economic and scientific implications of a system based on endless expansion, the likely consequences of unchecked population growth, and a recognition that, as a matter of logic (the Earth being finite in size and we having no prospect of getting off it any time soon), we will eventually have to establish a society with a stable population level.